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AFSK Kyiv vs Chayka — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

AFSK Kyiv
AFSK Kyiv
CANC
14:00
Chayka
Chayka
4/30/2022Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 27Stadion AFSC Kyiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

AFSK Kyiv21%
×Draw24%
Chayka55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFSK Kyiv
0.97
Chayka
1.72

Chayka creates 77% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 75 away

creates per match

AFSK Kyiv
0.57
Chayka
1.29

allows per match

AFSK Kyiv
2.14
Chayka
1.36

finishing

AFSK Kyiv+0.00on par
Chayka+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFSK Kyiv ↓

Chayka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

AFSK Kyiv or draw
45%
AFSK Kyiv or Chayka
76%
Draw or Chayka
79%

Winning margin

AFSK Kyiv wins by 2+
7%
Chayka wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

AFSK Kyiv 1+ goals
62%
AFSK Kyiv 2+ goals
25%
AFSK Kyiv 3+ goals
7%
Chayka 1+ goals
82%
Chayka 2+ goals
51%
Chayka 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

AFSK Kyiv (draw refunded)
28%
Chayka (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFSK Kyiv at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Chayka away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.36 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFSK Kyiv attack 0.57 + Chayka defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.97

Chayka attack 1.29 + AFSK Kyiv defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

AFSK Kyiv scores more
21%
level
24%
Chayka scores more
55%

Chayka at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Chayka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFSK Kyiv face Chayka (Druha Liga - Group A)

Druha Liga - Group A returns with AFSK Kyiv hosting Chayka. Match starts April 30, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

AFSK Kyiv host Chayka at Stadion AFSC Kyiv.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.