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Afrique Football Élite vs Étoiles Mandé — Première Division 2019

Afrique Football Élite
Afrique Football Élite
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Étoiles Mandé
Étoiles Mandé
11/23/2024Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 1Stade Centre Salif Keita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Afrique Football Élite45%
×Draw29%
Étoiles Mandé26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Afrique Football Élite
1.25
Étoiles Mandé
0.89

Afrique Football Élite creates 40% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 13 away

creates per match

Afrique Football Élite
0.97
Étoiles Mandé
0.77

allows per match

Afrique Football Élite
1.00
Étoiles Mandé
1.54

finishing

Afrique Football Élite+0.00on par
Étoiles Mandé+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afrique Football Élite ↓

Étoiles Mandé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Afrique Football Élite or draw
74%
Afrique Football Élite or Étoiles Mandé
71%
Draw or Étoiles Mandé
55%

Winning margin

Afrique Football Élite wins by 2+
20%
Étoiles Mandé wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Afrique Football Élite 1+ goals
71%
Afrique Football Élite 2+ goals
36%
Afrique Football Élite 3+ goals
13%
Étoiles Mandé 1+ goals
59%
Étoiles Mandé 2+ goals
22%
Étoiles Mandé 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Afrique Football Élite (draw refunded)
63%
Étoiles Mandé (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afrique Football Élite at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 73 matches

Étoiles Mandé away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afrique Football Élite attack 0.97 + Étoiles Mandé defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.25

Étoiles Mandé attack 0.77 + Afrique Football Élite defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Afrique Football Élite scores more
45%
level
29%
Étoiles Mandé scores more
26%

Afrique Football Élite at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Afrique Football Élite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Afrique Football Élite vs Étoiles Mandé

Étoiles Mandé beat Afrique Football Élite 2-0 in Première Division on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Centre Salif Keita in Bamako.