Africa Sports 2–4 Tanda: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Africa Sports

FT

2 – 4

Tanda

3/4/2020

Ligue 1 · Round 19Stade Robert Champroux

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Africa Sports36%

×Draw26%

Tanda38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Africa SportsExpected goals in this matchTanda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.33

Africa Sports

1.29

Tanda

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 18 away

1.08

creates per match

1.50

1.17

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Africa Sports

1.08

Tanda

1.50

allows per match

Africa Sports

1.17

Tanda

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Africa Sports+0.00on par

Tanda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Africa Sports ↓

Tanda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Africa Sports or draw

62%

Africa Sports or Tanda

74%

Draw or Tanda

64%

Winning margin

Africa Sports wins by 2+

16%

Tanda wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Africa Sports 1+ goals

72%

Africa Sports 2+ goals

37%

Africa Sports 3+ goals

14%

Tanda 1+ goals

74%

Tanda 2+ goals

38%

Tanda 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Africa Sports (draw refunded)

49%

Tanda (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Africa Sports at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

Tanda away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Africa Sports attack 1.08 + Tanda defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Tanda attack 1.50 + Africa Sports defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Africa Sports scores more

36%

level

26%

Tanda scores more

38%

Tanda at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff