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Afragolese vs Real Monterotondo — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Afragolese
Afragolese
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Real Monterotondo
Real Monterotondo
3/6/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 23Stadio Caduti di Brema

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Afragolese57%
×Draw23%
Real Monterotondo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Afragolese
1.83
Real Monterotondo
0.98

Afragolese creates 87% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

creates per match

Afragolese
2.06
Real Monterotondo
0.97

allows per match

Afragolese
1.00
Real Monterotondo
1.61

finishing

Afragolese+0.00on par
Real Monterotondo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afragolese ↓

Real Monterotondo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Afragolese or draw
80%
Afragolese or Real Monterotondo
77%
Draw or Real Monterotondo
43%

Winning margin

Afragolese wins by 2+
33%
Real Monterotondo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Afragolese 1+ goals
84%
Afragolese 2+ goals
54%
Afragolese 3+ goals
28%
Real Monterotondo 1+ goals
62%
Real Monterotondo 2+ goals
26%
Real Monterotondo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Afragolese (draw refunded)
74%
Real Monterotondo (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afragolese at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Real Monterotondo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.61 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afragolese attack 2.06 + Real Monterotondo defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.83

Real Monterotondo attack 0.97 + Afragolese defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Afragolese scores more
57%
level
23%
Real Monterotondo scores more
20%

Afragolese at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Afragolese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Afragolese 3–2 Real Monterotondo

Afragolese beat Real Monterotondo 3-2 in Serie D - Girone G on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Caduti di Brema in Napoli.