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Afragolese vs Lanusei — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Afragolese
Afragolese
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lanusei
Lanusei
4/3/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 27Stadio Caduti di Brema

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Afragolese61%
×Draw23%
Lanusei17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Afragolese
1.81
Lanusei
0.82

Afragolese creates 121% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 31 away

creates per match

Afragolese
2.06
Lanusei
0.65

allows per match

Afragolese
1.00
Lanusei
1.55

finishing

Afragolese+0.00on par
Lanusei+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afragolese ↓

Lanusei →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Afragolese or draw
83%
Afragolese or Lanusei
77%
Draw or Lanusei
39%

Winning margin

Afragolese wins by 2+
35%
Lanusei wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Afragolese 1+ goals
84%
Afragolese 2+ goals
54%
Afragolese 3+ goals
27%
Lanusei 1+ goals
56%
Lanusei 2+ goals
20%
Lanusei 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Afragolese (draw refunded)
79%
Lanusei (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afragolese at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Lanusei away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afragolese attack 2.06 + Lanusei defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.81

Lanusei attack 0.65 + Afragolese defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Afragolese scores more
61%
level
23%
Lanusei scores more
17%

Afragolese at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Afragolese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Afragolese 1–1 Lanusei

Afragolese and Lanusei drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone G on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Caduti di Brema in Napoli.