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Afragolese vs Albalonga — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Afragolese
Afragolese
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Albalonga
Albalonga
5/4/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 29Stadio Caduti di Brema

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Afragolese52%
×Draw23%
Albalonga25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Afragolese
1.77
Albalonga
1.15

Afragolese creates 54% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Afragolese
2.06
Albalonga
1.29

allows per match

Afragolese
1.00
Albalonga
1.47

finishing

Afragolese+0.00on par
Albalonga+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afragolese ↓

Albalonga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Afragolese or draw
75%
Afragolese or Albalonga
77%
Draw or Albalonga
48%

Winning margin

Afragolese wins by 2+
29%
Albalonga wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Afragolese 1+ goals
83%
Afragolese 2+ goals
53%
Afragolese 3+ goals
26%
Albalonga 1+ goals
68%
Albalonga 2+ goals
32%
Albalonga 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Afragolese (draw refunded)
68%
Albalonga (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afragolese at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Albalonga away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afragolese attack 2.06 + Albalonga defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.77

Albalonga attack 1.29 + Afragolese defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Afragolese scores more
52%
level
23%
Albalonga scores more
25%

Afragolese at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Afragolese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Afragolese 2–1 Albalonga

Afragolese beat Albalonga 2-1 in Serie D - Girone G on May 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Caduti di Brema in Napoli.