Afogados 1–1 Globo: Result & Stats | Serie D

Afogados

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Globo

Anderson Chaves 43'

João Aleluia 53'

5/8/2022

Serie D · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Valdemar Viana de Araújo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Afogados57%

×Draw24%

Globo20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AfogadosExpected goals in this matchGlobo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.92

Afogados

1.74

Globo

0.92

Afogados creates 89% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 23 away

1.60

creates per match

0.57

1.27

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Afogados

1.60

Globo

0.57

allows per match

Afogados

1.27

Globo

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Afogados+0.00on par

Globo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afogados ↓

Globo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Afogados or draw

80%

Afogados or Globo

76%

Draw or Globo

43%

Winning margin

Afogados wins by 2+

32%

Globo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Afogados 1+ goals

82%

Afogados 2+ goals

52%

Afogados 3+ goals

25%

Globo 1+ goals

60%

Globo 2+ goals

23%

Globo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Afogados (draw refunded)

74%

Globo (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afogados at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Globo away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afogados attack 1.60 + Globo defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.74

Globo attack 0.57 + Afogados defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Afogados scores more

57%

level

24%

Globo scores more

20%

Afogados at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Afogados will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

Anderson Chaves

46'

Gleydson← Stuart

46'

João Aleluia← Talles

50'

Harrisson← Hitalo

53'

João Aleluia

68'

Rogerinho← Breno Caetano

73'

Kaká← David Lopes

79'

Filipe← Isakiel

88'

Wellington← Anderson Chaves

88'

Arthur← Felipe Félix

90'

Wendy

Afogados

Globo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Chaves

Manager: Ito Roque

68'▲Rogerinho←▼Breno Caetano

79'▲Filipe←▼Isakiel

88'▲Wellington←▼Anderson Chaves

88'▲Arthur←▼Felipe Félix

Afogados substitutes

RogerinhoFilipeWellingtonArthurJonathanDaniloCardosoRyanÍndioBatoréTauã

Manager: Renatinho Potiguar

46'▲Gleydson←▼Stuart

46'▲João Aleluia←▼Talles

50'▲Harrisson←▼Hitalo

73'▲Kaká←▼David Lopes

Globo substitutes

GleydsonAleluiaHarrissonKakáMizaelMassarandubaMaelRanieryPereira