Afjet Afyonspor 1–1 İstanbulspor: Result & Stats

Afjet Afyonspor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

İstanbulspor

1/19/2019

1. Lig · Round 18Zafer Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Afjet Afyonspor29%

×Draw25%

İstanbulspor46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Afjet AfyonsporExpected goals in this matchİstanbulspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.57

Afjet Afyonspor

1.19

İstanbulspor

1.57

İstanbulspor creates 32% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 110 away

1.12

creates per match

1.39

1.76

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Afjet Afyonspor

1.12

İstanbulspor

1.39

allows per match

Afjet Afyonspor

1.76

İstanbulspor

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Afjet Afyonspor+0.00on par

İstanbulspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afjet Afyonspor ↓

İstanbulspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Afjet Afyonspor or draw

54%

Afjet Afyonspor or İstanbulspor

75%

Draw or İstanbulspor

71%

Winning margin

Afjet Afyonspor wins by 2+

12%

İstanbulspor wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Afjet Afyonspor 1+ goals

70%

Afjet Afyonspor 2+ goals

33%

Afjet Afyonspor 3+ goals

12%

İstanbulspor 1+ goals

79%

İstanbulspor 2+ goals

46%

İstanbulspor 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Afjet Afyonspor (draw refunded)

39%

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afjet Afyonspor at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

İstanbulspor away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afjet Afyonspor attack 1.12 + İstanbulspor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

İstanbulspor attack 1.39 + Afjet Afyonspor defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Afjet Afyonspor scores more

29%

level

25%

İstanbulspor scores more

46%

İstanbulspor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "İstanbulspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff