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Afjet Afyonspor vs Bayrampaşaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Afjet Afyonspor
Afjet Afyonspor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bayrampaşaspor
Bayrampaşaspor
9/25/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundZafer Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Afjet Afyonspor56%
×Draw22%
Bayrampaşaspor23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Afjet Afyonspor
1.96
Bayrampaşaspor
1.17

Afjet Afyonspor creates 68% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Afjet Afyonspor
1.67
Bayrampaşaspor
0.50

allows per match

Afjet Afyonspor
1.83
Bayrampaşaspor
2.25

finishing

Afjet Afyonspor+0.00on par
Bayrampaşaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afjet Afyonspor ↓

Bayrampaşaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Afjet Afyonspor or draw
77%
Afjet Afyonspor or Bayrampaşaspor
78%
Draw or Bayrampaşaspor
44%

Winning margin

Afjet Afyonspor wins by 2+
33%
Bayrampaşaspor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Afjet Afyonspor 1+ goals
86%
Afjet Afyonspor 2+ goals
58%
Afjet Afyonspor 3+ goals
31%
Bayrampaşaspor 1+ goals
69%
Bayrampaşaspor 2+ goals
33%
Bayrampaşaspor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Afjet Afyonspor (draw refunded)
71%
Bayrampaşaspor (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afjet Afyonspor at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Bayrampaşaspor away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afjet Afyonspor attack 1.67 + Bayrampaşaspor defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.96

Bayrampaşaspor attack 0.50 + Afjet Afyonspor defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Afjet Afyonspor scores more
56%
level
22%
Bayrampaşaspor scores more
23%

Afjet Afyonspor at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Afjet Afyonspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Afjet Afyonspor 0–1 Bayrampaşaspor

Bayrampaşaspor beat Afjet Afyonspor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 25, 2019.

The match was played at Zafer Stadı in Afyonkarahisar.