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Afghanistan vs Bangladesh U23 — Friendlies 2026

Afghanistan
Afghanistan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bangladesh U23
Bangladesh U23
Unknown 19'
6/4/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly InternationalNational Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Afghanistan14%
×Draw46%
Bangladesh U2340%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Afghanistan
0.29
Bangladesh U23
0.67

Bangladesh U23 creates 131% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Afghanistan
0.25
Bangladesh U23
0.33

allows per match

Afghanistan
1.00
Bangladesh U23
0.33

finishing

Afghanistan+0.00on par
Bangladesh U23+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Under
  • Under93
  • Over7

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

88%No
  • No88
  • Yes12

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afghanistan ↓

Bangladesh U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–038%
0–126%
0–29%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–02%
2–11%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (38%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
62%38%1.5
25%75%2.5
7%93%3.5
2%98%4.5
0%100%

Double chance

Afghanistan or draw
60%
Afghanistan or Bangladesh U23
54%
Draw or Bangladesh U23
86%

Winning margin

Afghanistan wins by 2+
2%
Bangladesh U23 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Afghanistan 1+ goals
25%
Afghanistan 2+ goals
3%
Afghanistan 3+ goals
0%
Bangladesh U23 1+ goals
49%
Bangladesh U23 2+ goals
15%
Bangladesh U23 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Afghanistan (draw refunded)
26%
Bangladesh U23 (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
5%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afghanistan at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Bangladesh U23 away — creates 0.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afghanistan attack 0.25 + Bangladesh U23 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.29

Bangladesh U23 attack 0.33 + Afghanistan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Afghanistan scores more
14%
level
46%
Bangladesh U23 scores more
40%

Bangladesh U23 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bangladesh U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Afghanistan vs Bangladesh U23

Afghanistan and Bangladesh U23 drew 0-0 in Friendlies on June 4, 2026.

Goals: ? (19').

The match was played at National Stadium.