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Afghanistan U20 vs Turkmenistan U20 — Friendlies 2018

Afghanistan U20
Afghanistan U20
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Turkmenistan U20
Turkmenistan U20
Y. Safi 45'
V. Orazdurdyyev 26'
Y. Govshudov 9'
A. Vepayev 1'
5/12/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Afghanistan U2019%
×Draw18%
Turkmenistan U2063%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Afghanistan U20
1.30
Turkmenistan U20
2.50

Turkmenistan U20 creates 92% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Afghanistan U20
1.00
Turkmenistan U20
2.00

allows per match

Afghanistan U20
3.00
Turkmenistan U20
1.60

finishing

Afghanistan U20+0.00on par
Turkmenistan U20+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afghanistan U20 ↓

Turkmenistan U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Afghanistan U20 or draw
37%
Afghanistan U20 or Turkmenistan U20
82%
Draw or Turkmenistan U20
81%

Winning margin

Afghanistan U20 wins by 2+
7%
Turkmenistan U20 wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Afghanistan U20 1+ goals
73%
Afghanistan U20 2+ goals
37%
Afghanistan U20 3+ goals
14%
Turkmenistan U20 1+ goals
92%
Turkmenistan U20 2+ goals
71%
Turkmenistan U20 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Afghanistan U20 (draw refunded)
23%
Turkmenistan U20 (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afghanistan U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Turkmenistan U20 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afghanistan U20 attack 1.00 + Turkmenistan U20 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Turkmenistan U20 attack 2.00 + Afghanistan U20 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Afghanistan U20 scores more
19%
level
18%
Turkmenistan U20 scores more
63%

Turkmenistan U20 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Turkmenistan U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
A. Vepayev
9'
Y. Govshudov
26'
V. Orazdurdyyev
45'
Y. Safi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Afghanistan U20 vs Turkmenistan U20

Turkmenistan U20 beat Afghanistan U20 3-1 in Friendlies on May 12, 2026.

Goals: A. Vepayev (1'), Y. Govshudov (9'), V. Orazdurdyyev (26'), Y. Safi (45').