Afghanistan U17 2–1 Qatar U17: Result & Stats

Afghanistan U17

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Qatar U17

Habibullah Hotak 40', 18'

Khalid Atiyaq Al Shaaibi 26'

6/22/2023

AFC U17 Asian Cup · Group Stage - 3Rajamangala National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Afghanistan U1746%

×Draw21%

Qatar U1733%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Afghanistan U17Expected goals in this matchQatar U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.71

Afghanistan U17

2.04

Qatar U17

1.71

Afghanistan U17 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

0.83

creates per match

0.75

2.67

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Afghanistan U17

0.83

Qatar U17

0.75

allows per match

Afghanistan U17

2.67

Qatar U17

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Afghanistan U17+0.00on par

Qatar U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afghanistan U17 ↓

Qatar U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Afghanistan U17 or draw

67%

Afghanistan U17 or Qatar U17

79%

Draw or Qatar U17

54%

Winning margin

Afghanistan U17 wins by 2+

26%

Qatar U17 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Afghanistan U17 1+ goals

87%

Afghanistan U17 2+ goals

60%

Afghanistan U17 3+ goals

33%

Qatar U17 1+ goals

82%

Qatar U17 2+ goals

51%

Qatar U17 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Afghanistan U17 (draw refunded)

58%

Qatar U17 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afghanistan U17 at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Qatar U17 away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afghanistan U17 attack 0.83 + Qatar U17 defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.04

Qatar U17 attack 0.75 + Afghanistan U17 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Afghanistan U17 scores more

46%

level

21%

Qatar U17 scores more

33%

Afghanistan U17 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Afghanistan U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Habibullah Hotak↳ Hakim Khan Niazi

26'

Khalid Atiyaq Al Shaaibi

40'

Habibullah Hotak↳ Ali Reza Rahimi

46'

Yazan Awwad← Salem Reda

57'

Esmail Al Ahrak← Khalid Atiyaq Al Shaaibi

67'

Mohammed Al Sulaiti← Abdolaziz Jafari

67'

Dekhayel Al Hamad← Mohamed Elsiddig

72'

Aws Al Muhiarat← Tahsin Jamshid

81'

Ali Ramazani← Arash Ahmadi

90+1'

Mohammad Mostafa Mohammadi← Hakim Khan Niazi

Afghanistan

Qatar

22

Sharkawy

6

▼

17

4

5

2

▼

Jafari

23

Otaibi

15

⚽

▼

Shaaibi

18

Mirghani

13

▼

Elsiddig

7

▼

22

2

3

4

19

⚽2

Hotak

6

A

Rahimi

10

A

▼

11

20

8

9

▼

Ahmadi

Manager: Yosuf Mohandis Zada

81'▲Ali Ramazani←▼Arash Ahmadi

90+1'▲Mohammad Mostafa Mohammadi←▼Hakim Khan Niazi

Afghanistan U17 substitutes

14Ramazani21Mohammadi23Khil15Habibi13Jafari17Amini1Noorzai18Gawhari16Mehri

Manager: Ibrahim El Shafie

46'▲Yazan Awwad←▼Salem Reda

57'▲Esmail Al Ahrak←▼Khalid Atiyaq Al Shaaibi

67'▲Mohammed Al Sulaiti←▼Abdolaziz Jafari

67'▲Dekhayel Al Hamad←▼Mohamed Elsiddig

72'▲Aws Al Muhiarat←▼Tahsin Jamshid

Qatar U17 substitutes

12Awwad20Ahrak8Sulaiti9Hamad14Muhiarat1Erraji16Kuswanto3Mughanni11Ali19Andrade21Shoaib