AFC Wimbledon W 0–2 Ipswich Town W: Result & Stats

AFC Wimbledon W

0 – 2

Ipswich Town W

12/12/2021

FA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundWar Memorial Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

AFC Wimbledon W16%

×Draw17%

Ipswich Town W67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC Wimbledon WExpected goals in this matchIpswich Town W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

2.67

AFC Wimbledon W

1.25

Ipswich Town W

2.67

Ipswich Town W creates 114% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

1.00

creates per match

3.58

1.75

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon W

1.00

Ipswich Town W

3.58

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon W

1.75

Ipswich Town W

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Wimbledon W+0.00on par

Ipswich Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon W ↓

Ipswich Town W →

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon W or draw

33%

AFC Wimbledon W or Ipswich Town W

83%

Draw or Ipswich Town W

84%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon W wins by 2+

Ipswich Town W wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon W 1+ goals

71%

AFC Wimbledon W 2+ goals

36%

AFC Wimbledon W 3+ goals

13%

Ipswich Town W 1+ goals

93%

Ipswich Town W 2+ goals

74%

Ipswich Town W 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon W (draw refunded)

19%

Ipswich Town W (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Ipswich Town W away — creates 3.58, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon W attack 1.00 + Ipswich Town W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Ipswich Town W attack 3.58 + AFC Wimbledon W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

AFC Wimbledon W scores more

16%

level

17%

Ipswich Town W scores more

67%

Ipswich Town W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Ipswich Town W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff