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AFC Wimbledon W vs Gillingham W — FA Women's Cup 2019

AFC Wimbledon W
AFC Wimbledon W
FT
1 – 0
Gillingham W
Gillingham W
1/8/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundThe Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

AFC Wimbledon W43%
×Draw22%
Gillingham W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Wimbledon W
1.92
Gillingham W
1.71

AFC Wimbledon W creates 12% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon W
1.00
Gillingham W
1.67

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon W
1.75
Gillingham W
2.83

finishing

AFC Wimbledon W+0.00on par
Gillingham W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon W ↓

Gillingham W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon W or draw
65%
AFC Wimbledon W or Gillingham W
78%
Draw or Gillingham W
57%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon W wins by 2+
24%
Gillingham W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon W 1+ goals
85%
AFC Wimbledon W 2+ goals
57%
AFC Wimbledon W 3+ goals
30%
Gillingham W 1+ goals
82%
Gillingham W 2+ goals
51%
Gillingham W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon W (draw refunded)
55%
Gillingham W (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Gillingham W away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon W attack 1.00 + Gillingham W defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

Gillingham W attack 1.67 + AFC Wimbledon W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AFC Wimbledon W scores more
43%
level
22%
Gillingham W scores more
35%

AFC Wimbledon W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AFC Wimbledon W vs Gillingham W

AFC Wimbledon W beat Gillingham W 1-0 in FA Women's Cup on January 8, 2023.

The match was played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in London.