AFC Wimbledon W 1–5 Charlton Athletic W

AFC Wimbledon W

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Charlton Athletic W

1/29/2023

FA Women's Cup · 4th RoundWar Memorial Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

AFC Wimbledon W15%

×Draw20%

Charlton Athletic W64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC Wimbledon WExpected goals in this matchCharlton Athletic W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

2.08

AFC Wimbledon W

0.90

Charlton Athletic W

2.08

Charlton Athletic W creates 131% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

1.00

creates per match

2.40

1.75

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon W

1.00

Charlton Athletic W

2.40

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon W

1.75

Charlton Athletic W

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Wimbledon W+0.00on par

Charlton Athletic W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon W ↓

Charlton Athletic W →

0–05%

0–111%

0–211%

0–38%

0–44%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon W or draw

36%

AFC Wimbledon W or Charlton Athletic W

80%

Draw or Charlton Athletic W

85%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon W wins by 2+

Charlton Athletic W wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon W 1+ goals

59%

AFC Wimbledon W 2+ goals

23%

AFC Wimbledon W 3+ goals

Charlton Athletic W 1+ goals

87%

Charlton Athletic W 2+ goals

61%

Charlton Athletic W 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon W (draw refunded)

19%

Charlton Athletic W (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Charlton Athletic W away — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon W attack 1.00 + Charlton Athletic W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Charlton Athletic W attack 2.40 + AFC Wimbledon W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

AFC Wimbledon W scores more

15%

level

20%

Charlton Athletic W scores more

64%

Charlton Athletic W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Charlton Athletic W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff