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AFC Wimbledon vs Wycombe — League One 2018

AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Wycombe
Wycombe
S. Seddon 32'
O. Bugiel 11'
E. Henderson 59'
9/27/2025League OneLeague One · Round 10The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

AFC Wimbledon34%
×Draw26%
Wycombe40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Wimbledon
1.23
Wycombe
1.35

Wycombe creates 10% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 158 away

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.14
Wycombe
1.26

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.45
Wycombe
1.32

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par
Wycombe+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Wycombe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw
60%
AFC Wimbledon or Wycombe
74%
Draw or Wycombe
66%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
14%
Wycombe wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
71%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
35%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
13%
Wycombe 1+ goals
74%
Wycombe 2+ goals
39%
Wycombe 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
46%
Wycombe (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.45 · 106 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.32 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.14 + Wycombe defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Wycombe attack 1.26 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more
34%
level
26%
Wycombe scores more
40%

Wycombe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
S. SeddonAFC WimbledonAFC Wimbledon · M
8.3

Match Events

11'
O. Bugiel↳ S. Seddon
32'
S. Seddon↳ O. Bugiel
46'
G. Abbott← J. Mullins
59'
E. Henderson↳ F. Onyedinma
68'
C. Maycock← M. Hippolyte
76'
D. Orsi-Dadomo← O. Bugiel
77'
D. McNeilly← F. Onyedinma
83'
C. Boyd-Munce← L. Leahy
83'
B. Fink← S. Bell
90+1'
P. Bauer← J. Lewis

Possession

32%AFC

Shots

6AFC

Pass accuracy

45%AFC

Statistics

AFCWycombe
Overview
32%Possession68%
6Total Shots12
0Corners7
13Fouls11
Shots
6Total Shots12
2On Target1
2Off Target7
2Blocked4
4Inside Box6
2Outside Box6
Passing
32%Possession68%
289Total Passes601
199Accurate Passes501
69%Pass Accuracy83%
Discipline
13Fouls11
4Offsides3

League One: AFC Wimbledon 2–1 Wycombe

AFC Wimbledon beat Wycombe 2-1 in League One on September 27, 2025.

Goals: O. Bugiel (11'), S. Seddon (32'), E. Henderson (59').

Wycombe controlled possession (68%) and registered 12 shots to 6.

The match was played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in London.