AFC Wimbledon 0–0 Wycombe: Result & Stats

AFC Wimbledon

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wycombe

8/31/2019

League One · Round 6The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

AFC Wimbledon34%

×Draw23%

Wycombe43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC WimbledonExpected goals in this matchWycombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.69

AFC Wimbledon

1.48

Wycombe

1.69

Wycombe creates 14% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

1.22

creates per match

1.72

1.66

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.22

Wycombe

1.72

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.66

Wycombe

1.74

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

AFC Wimbledon-0.22scores less

Wycombe-0.58scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Wycombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw

57%

AFC Wimbledon or Wycombe

77%

Draw or Wycombe

66%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

16%

Wycombe wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

77%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

43%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

19%

Wycombe 1+ goals

82%

Wycombe 2+ goals

50%

Wycombe 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

44%

Wycombe (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.66 · 11 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.74 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.22 + Wycombe defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.48

Wycombe attack 1.72 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more

34%

level

23%

Wycombe scores more

43%

Wycombe at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

N. Trott

AFC Wimbledon · G

7.9

Match Events

66'

J. Parker← S. Kashket

74'

A. Roscrow← K. Appiah

75'

Callum Reilly

78'

A. Pattison← M. Bloomfield

84'

Nesta Guinness-Walker

88'

M. Pinnock← A. Hartigan

90'

Paul Kalambayi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AFCWycombe

Overview

56%Possession44%

11Total Shots14

5Corners4

18Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots14

3On Target5

6Off Target7

2Blocked2

6Inside Box10

5Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

344Total Passes270

201Accurate Passes135

58%Pass Accuracy50%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls12

3Yellow Cards0

0Offsides3