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AFC Wimbledon vs Wrexham — League Two 2018

AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Wrexham
Wrexham
8/12/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 2The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

AFC Wimbledon42%
×Draw28%
Wrexham31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Wimbledon
1.31
Wrexham
1.08

AFC Wimbledon creates 21% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 23 away

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.46
Wrexham
1.17

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.00
Wrexham
1.17

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par
Wrexham+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Wrexham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw
69%
AFC Wimbledon or Wrexham
72%
Draw or Wrexham
58%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
19%
Wrexham wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
73%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
38%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
14%
Wrexham 1+ goals
66%
Wrexham 2+ goals
29%
Wrexham 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
58%
Wrexham (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.00 · 71 matches

Wrexham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.46 + Wrexham defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.31

Wrexham attack 1.17 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more
42%
level
28%
Wrexham scores more
31%

AFC Wimbledon at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: AFC Wimbledon 1–1 Wrexham

AFC Wimbledon and Wrexham drew 1-1 in League Two on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in London.