AFC Wimbledon 1–1 Sunderland: Result & Stats

AFC Wimbledon

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sunderland

L. McCormick 20' (pen)

A. Pritchard 35'

2/12/2022

League One · Round 33The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

AFC Wimbledon30%

×Draw27%

Sunderland43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC WimbledonExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.38

AFC Wimbledon

1.11

Sunderland

1.38

Sunderland creates 24% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 86 away

1.14

creates per match

1.30

1.45

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.14

Sunderland

1.30

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.45

Sunderland

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Sunderland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw

57%

AFC Wimbledon or Sunderland

73%

Draw or Sunderland

70%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

12%

Sunderland wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

67%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

30%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

10%

Sunderland 1+ goals

75%

Sunderland 2+ goals

40%

Sunderland 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

41%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.45 · 106 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.14 + Sunderland defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

Sunderland attack 1.30 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more

30%

level

27%

Sunderland scores more

43%

Sunderland at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

A. Pritchard

Sunderland · F

7.7

Match Events

20'

L. McCormickPenalty

25'

35'

44'

45+1'

54'

57'

62'

62'

C. Evans← C. Winchester

67'

Jay Matete

68'

Ethan Chislett

73'

P. Roberts← R. Stewart

75'

Corry Evans

76'

A. Hartigan← E. Chislett

79'

A. Cosgrave← S. Cosgrove

80'

83'

90+5'

90'

90'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AFCSunderland

Overview

41%Possession59%

11Total Shots8

9Corners5

22Fouls18

Shots

11Total Shots8

6On Target1

4Off Target4

1Blocked3

5Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

253Total Passes378

163Accurate Passes275

64%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

22Fouls18

6Yellow Cards7

1Red Cards0

4Offsides3