AFC Wimbledon 1–1 Southend: Result & Stats

AFC Wimbledon

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Southend

C. Reilly 23'

C. Kelman 90+1' (pen)

1/1/2020

League One · Round 25The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

AFC Wimbledon44%

×Draw25%

Southend30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC WimbledonExpected goals in this matchSouthend

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.20

AFC Wimbledon

1.51

Southend

1.20

AFC Wimbledon creates 26% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 44 away

1.14

creates per match

0.95

1.45

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.14

Southend

0.95

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.45

Southend

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Southend+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Southend →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw

70%

AFC Wimbledon or Southend

75%

Draw or Southend

56%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

22%

Southend wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

78%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

44%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

19%

Southend 1+ goals

70%

Southend 2+ goals

34%

Southend 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

59%

Southend (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.45 · 106 matches

Southend away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.89 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.14 + Southend defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.51

Southend attack 0.95 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more

44%

level

25%

Southend scores more

30%

AFC Wimbledon at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

C. Kelman

Southend · F

7.5

Match Events

23'

C. Reilly↳ R. Delaney

46'

Shane McLoughlin

46'

I. Hutchinson← E. Kinali

50'

A. Hartigan← J. Rudoni

75'

C. Kelman← S. Humphrys

85'

Tom Hopper

89'

S. Barratt← J. Demetriou

90'

Charlie Kelman

90+1'

C. KelmanPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AFCSouthend

Overview

51%Possession49%

13Total Shots11

6Corners7

14Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots11

4On Target3

5Off Target2

4Blocked6

7Inside Box4

6Outside Box7

Passing

51%Possession49%

360Total Passes331

218Accurate Passes205

61%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1