AFC Wimbledon 1–1 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats

AFC Wimbledon

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Shrewsbury

A. Assal 13'

D. Udoh 58'

1/29/2022

League One · Round 30The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

AFC Wimbledon39%

×Draw27%

Shrewsbury34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC WimbledonExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.16

AFC Wimbledon

1.26

Shrewsbury

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 106 home / 152 away

1.14

creates per match

0.86

1.45

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.14

Shrewsbury

0.86

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.45

Shrewsbury

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw

66%

AFC Wimbledon or Shrewsbury

73%

Draw or Shrewsbury

61%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

17%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

72%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

36%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

13%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

69%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

32%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

53%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.45 · 106 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.14 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.26

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more

39%

level

27%

Shrewsbury scores more

34%

AFC Wimbledon at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

E. Chislett

AFC Wimbledon · M

7.5

Match Events

13'

A. Assal↳ E. Chislett

30'

45+3'

47'

58'

60'

A. Hartigan← E. Chislett

73'

A. Cosgrave← T. Ablade

75'

S. Janneh← T. Fornah

77'

Ben Heneghan

81'

T. Kalinauskas← A. Assal

87'

Elliott Bennett

88'

A. Pierre← N. Ogbeta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AFCShrewsbury

Overview

53%Possession47%

13Total Shots9

1Corners6

14Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots9

5On Target3

7Off Target3

1Blocked3

6Inside Box4

7Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

367Total Passes330

250Accurate Passes191

68%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides4