AFC Wimbledon 1–2 Rotherham: Result & Stats

AFC Wimbledon

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rotherham

J. Pigott 50'

C. Robertson 84'

F. Ladapo 29'

8/3/2019

League One · Round 1The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

AFC Wimbledon37%

×Draw26%

Rotherham37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC WimbledonExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

AFC Wimbledon

1.31

Rotherham

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.22

creates per match

0.96

1.66

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.22

Rotherham

0.96

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.66

Rotherham

1.41

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

AFC Wimbledon-0.22scores less

Rotherham+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw

63%

AFC Wimbledon or Rotherham

74%

Draw or Rotherham

63%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

16%

Rotherham wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

73%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

38%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

14%

Rotherham 1+ goals

73%

Rotherham 2+ goals

38%

Rotherham 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

50%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.66 · 11 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.41 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.22 + Rotherham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

Rotherham attack 0.96 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more

37%

level

26%

Rotherham scores more

37%

AFC Wimbledon at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

J. Pigott

AFC Wimbledon · F

7.7

Match Events

29'

F. Ladapo↳ M. Smith

50'

J. Pigott↳ A. Hartigan

69'

B. Wiles← D. Barlaser

75'

C. Morris← K. Vassell

80'

S. McLoughlin← A. Hartigan

83'

D. Connolly← M. Folivi

84'

J. Proctor← F. Ladapo

84'

C. Robertson↳ B. Wiles

86'

K. Appiah← T. Thomas

89'

Callum Reilly

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AFCRotherham

Overview

42%Possession58%

11Total Shots15

4Corners4

16Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots15

1On Target9

6Off Target4

4Blocked2

7Inside Box9

4Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

275Total Passes359

128Accurate Passes215

47%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls12

1Yellow Cards0

4Offsides2