AFC Wimbledon 3–2 Rochdale: Result & Stats

AFC Wimbledon

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Rochdale

M. Pinnock 28'

P. Osew 16'

M. Forss 2'

I. Henderson 90+5', 66'

10/5/2019

League One · Round 12The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

AFC Wimbledon39%

×Draw25%

Rochdale36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC WimbledonExpected goals in this matchRochdale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.42

AFC Wimbledon

1.50

Rochdale

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 106 home / 72 away

1.14

creates per match

1.38

1.45

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.14

Rochdale

1.38

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.45

Rochdale

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Rochdale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw

64%

AFC Wimbledon or Rochdale

75%

Draw or Rochdale

61%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

19%

Rochdale wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

78%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

44%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

19%

Rochdale 1+ goals

76%

Rochdale 2+ goals

41%

Rochdale 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

52%

Rochdale (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.45 · 106 matches

Rochdale away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.14 + Rochdale defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rochdale attack 1.38 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more

39%

level

25%

Rochdale scores more

36%

AFC Wimbledon at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

I. Henderson

Rochdale · F

8.2

Match Events

2'

M. Forss

16'

P. Osew↳ S. Wagstaff

28'

M. Pinnock↳ S. Wagstaff

45'

Anthony Wordsworth

56'

I. Henderson← A. Morley

66'

I. Henderson↳ O. Rathbone

69'

J. Ryan← F. Tavares

70'

Aaron Wilbraham

74'

M. Folivi← M. Forss

85'

A. Hartigan← A. Wordsworth

90+2'

C. Reilly← M. Pinnock

90+5'

I. Henderson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AFCRochdale

Overview

45%Possession55%

14Total Shots15

5Corners4

14Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots15

4On Target6

3Off Target6

7Blocked3

7Inside Box13

7Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

333Total Passes391

232Accurate Passes299

70%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

4Offsides2