AFC Wimbledon 2–2 Newport County: Result & Stats

AFC Wimbledon

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Newport County

12/3/2024

League Two · Round 18The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

AFC Wimbledon47%

×Draw26%

Newport County27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC WimbledonExpected goals in this matchNewport County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.04

AFC Wimbledon

1.46

Newport County

1.04

AFC Wimbledon creates 40% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 179 away

1.46

creates per match

1.08

1.00

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.46

Newport County

1.08

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.00

Newport County

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Newport County+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Newport County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw

73%

AFC Wimbledon or Newport County

74%

Draw or Newport County

53%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

23%

Newport County wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

77%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

43%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

18%

Newport County 1+ goals

65%

Newport County 2+ goals

28%

Newport County 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

63%

Newport County (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.00 · 71 matches

Newport County away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.47 · 179 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.46 + Newport County defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Newport County attack 1.08 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more

47%

level

26%

Newport County scores more

27%

AFC Wimbledon at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff