AFC Wimbledon 1–1 Milton Keynes Dons

AFC Wimbledon

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Milton Keynes Dons

4/9/2022

League One · Round 42The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

AFC Wimbledon35%

×Draw26%

Milton Keynes Dons39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC WimbledonExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.36

AFC Wimbledon

1.27

Milton Keynes Dons

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 95 away

1.15

creates per match

1.27

1.45

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.15

Milton Keynes Dons

1.27

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.45

Milton Keynes Dons

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw

61%

AFC Wimbledon or Milton Keynes Dons

74%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

65%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

15%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

72%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

36%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

14%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

74%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

39%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

47%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.15 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.27 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more

35%

level

26%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

39%

Milton Keynes Dons at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff