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AFC Wimbledon vs Luton — League One 2018

AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
Preview
19:45
Luton
Luton
12/29/2026League OneLeague One · Round 22The Cherry Red Records Stadium
50%
Luton
model favours
27%22%50%

Luton have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

AFC Wimbledon27%
×Draw22%
Luton50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Wimbledon
1.35
Luton
1.91

Luton creates 41% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.02
Luton
1.87

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.94
Luton
1.69

finishing

AFC Wimbledon-0.02on par
Luton-0.09on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Luton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw
50%
AFC Wimbledon or Luton
78%
Draw or Luton
73%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
12%
Luton wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
74%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
39%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
15%
Luton 1+ goals
85%
Luton 2+ goals
57%
Luton 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
35%
Luton (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.94 · 8 matches

Luton away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.69 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.02 + Luton defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.35

Luton attack 1.87 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more
27%
level
22%
Luton scores more
50%

Luton at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • AFC Wimbledon sit 19, Luton 7 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
AFC Wimbledon
Balanced
Luton
Balanced
47%Possession55%
68%Pass accuracy76%
10.6Shots12.4
0.98xGBiggest gap1.78
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
AFC WimbledonLuton

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

0
AFC Wimbledon
1
Draws
3
Luton
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 25%
0–30–12–20–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Wimbledon
DWLWL
Luton
DWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Wimbledon face Luton (League One)

League One returns with AFC Wimbledon hosting Luton. Match starts December 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

AFC Wimbledon host Luton at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.