AFC Wimbledon 0–2 Ipswich: Result & Stats

AFC Wimbledon

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Ipswich

W. Burns 86', 61'

1/25/2022

League One · Round 27The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

AFC Wimbledon29%

×Draw27%

Ipswich43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC WimbledonExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.36

AFC Wimbledon

1.07

Ipswich

1.36

Ipswich creates 27% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 84 away

1.14

creates per match

1.27

1.45

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.14

Ipswich

1.27

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.45

Ipswich

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw

57%

AFC Wimbledon or Ipswich

73%

Draw or Ipswich

71%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

11%

Ipswich wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

66%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

29%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

9%

Ipswich 1+ goals

74%

Ipswich 2+ goals

39%

Ipswich 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

40%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.45 · 106 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.14 + Ipswich defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.07

Ipswich attack 1.27 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more

29%

level

27%

Ipswich scores more

43%

Ipswich at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

W. Burns

Ipswich · M

8.2

Match Events

47'

George Edmundson

53'

Luke McCormick

61'

W. Burns↳ J. Norwood

63'

A. Hartigan← E. Chislett

67'

T. Ablade← A. Cosgrave

71'

C. Chaplin← K. Jackson

71'

B. Celina← S. Aluko

81'

M. Bonne← J. Norwood

82'

D. Awokoya-Mebude← L. McCormick

86'

86'

90+5'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AFCIpswich

Overview

38%Possession62%

12Total Shots8

1Corners9

7Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots8

4On Target2

5Off Target4

3Blocked2

6Inside Box7

6Outside Box1

Passing

38%Possession62%

333Total Passes538

220Accurate Passes408

66%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1