AFC Wimbledon 0–0 Ipswich: Result & Stats

AFC Wimbledon

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ipswich

2/11/2020

League One · Round 33The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

AFC Wimbledon29%

×Draw27%

Ipswich43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC WimbledonExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.36

AFC Wimbledon

1.07

Ipswich

1.36

Ipswich creates 27% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 84 away

1.14

creates per match

1.27

1.45

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.14

Ipswich

1.27

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.45

Ipswich

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw

57%

AFC Wimbledon or Ipswich

73%

Draw or Ipswich

71%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

11%

Ipswich wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

66%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

29%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

9%

Ipswich 1+ goals

74%

Ipswich 2+ goals

39%

Ipswich 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

40%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.45 · 106 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.14 + Ipswich defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.07

Ipswich attack 1.27 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more

29%

level

27%

Ipswich scores more

43%

Ipswich at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Day

AFC Wimbledon

8.5

Match Events

39'

Callum Reilly

69'

Flynn Downes

70'

S. Wagstaff← C. Reilly

70'

W. Keane← J. Norwood

81'

F. Sears← J. Earl

86'

J. Rudoni← M. Sanders

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AFCIpswich

Overview

36%Possession64%

6Total Shots14

2Corners6

19Fouls17

Shots

6Total Shots14

0On Target6

4Off Target2

2Blocked6

3Inside Box8

3Outside Box6

Passing

36%Possession64%

270Total Passes463

150Accurate Passes331

56%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

19Fouls17

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2