Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby — League Two 2018

AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Grimsby
Grimsby
E. Chislett 60'
12/3/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 20The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

AFC Wimbledon45%
×Draw27%
Grimsby28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Wimbledon
1.42
Grimsby
1.07

AFC Wimbledon creates 33% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 138 away

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.47
Grimsby
1.15

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.00
Grimsby
1.38

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par
Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Grimsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw
72%
AFC Wimbledon or Grimsby
73%
Draw or Grimsby
55%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
22%
Grimsby wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
76%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
41%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
17%
Grimsby 1+ goals
66%
Grimsby 2+ goals
29%
Grimsby 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
61%
Grimsby (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.47 + Grimsby defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Grimsby attack 1.15 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more
45%
level
27%
Grimsby scores more
28%

AFC Wimbledon at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
J. CurrieAFC WimbledonAFC Wimbledon · D
7.9

Match Events

34'
Huseyin Biler
45+10'
A. Smith← M. Efete
49'
Paul Kalambayi
60'
E. Chislett↳ H. Pell
66'
Harry Pell
72'
K. Simmonds← B. Kiernan
77'
A. Pepple← O. Khan
78'
Keyendrah Simmonds
85'
K. Hudlin← E. Chislett

Possession

50%AFC

Shots

12AFC

Pass accuracy

47%AFC

Statistics

AFCGrimsby
Overview
50%Possession50%
12Total Shots6
5Corners4
9Fouls18
Shots
12Total Shots6
2On Target1
6Off Target5
4Blocked0
9Inside Box5
3Outside Box1
Passing
50%Possession50%
352Total Passes354
195Accurate Passes215
55%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls18
3Yellow Cards1
5Offsides4

Match Recap: AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby

AFC Wimbledon beat Grimsby 1-0 in League Two on December 3, 2022.

Goals: E. Chislett (60').

AFC Wimbledon controlled possession (50%) and registered 12 shots to 6.

The match was played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in London.