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AFC Wimbledon vs Crewe — League Two 2018

AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Crewe
Crewe
A. Assal 45+1'
R. Adebisi 62'
10/25/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 13The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

AFC Wimbledon45%
×Draw27%
Crewe29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Wimbledon
1.42
Crewe
1.08

AFC Wimbledon creates 31% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 122 away

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.47
Crewe
1.16

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.00
Crewe
1.38

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par
Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw
71%
AFC Wimbledon or Crewe
73%
Draw or Crewe
55%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
22%
Crewe wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
76%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
41%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
17%
Crewe 1+ goals
66%
Crewe 2+ goals
29%
Crewe 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
61%
Crewe (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.38 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.47 + Crewe defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Crewe attack 1.16 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more
45%
level
27%
Crewe scores more
29%

AFC Wimbledon at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
K. MellorCreweCrewe · D
7.9

Match Events

24'
Conor Thomas
39'
Kelvin Mellor
43'
A. Woodyard← L. Brown
45+1'
A. Assal
46'
B. Sambou← O. Finney
53'
Ethan Chislett
54'
Zac Williams
62'
R. Adebisi↳ K. Mellor
70'
Joel Tabiner
70'
L. Brook← J. Tabiner
78'
E. King← R. Adebisi
84'
C. Senior← E. Chislett
88'
Luke Offord

Possession

49%AFC

Shots

14AFC

Pass accuracy

49%AFC

Statistics

AFCCrewe
Overview
49%Possession51%
14Total Shots10
6Corners9
14Fouls16
Shots
14Total Shots10
6On Target1
7Off Target5
1Blocked4
9Inside Box7
5Outside Box3
Passing
49%Possession51%
330Total Passes337
210Accurate Passes224
64%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
14Fouls16
1Yellow Cards5
6Offsides1

Match Recap: AFC Wimbledon vs Crewe

AFC Wimbledon and Crewe drew 1-1 in League Two on October 25, 2022.

Goals: A. Assal (45+1'), R. Adebisi (62').

Crewe controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 14.

The match was played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in London.