AFC Wimbledon 0–0 Coventry: Result & Stats

AFC Wimbledon

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Coventry

8/11/2018

League One · Round 2Kingsmeadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

AFC Wimbledon34%

×Draw26%

Coventry40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC WimbledonExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.39

AFC Wimbledon

1.27

Coventry

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 106 home / 44 away

1.14

creates per match

1.32

1.45

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.14

Coventry

1.32

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.45

Coventry

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Coventry+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw

60%

AFC Wimbledon or Coventry

74%

Draw or Coventry

66%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

15%

Coventry wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

72%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

36%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

14%

Coventry 1+ goals

75%

Coventry 2+ goals

40%

Coventry 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

46%

Coventry (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.45 · 106 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.41 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.14 + Coventry defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Coventry attack 1.32 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more

34%

level

26%

Coventry scores more

40%

Coventry at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

Liam Trotter

64'

M. Biamou← A. Bakayoko

66'

Abu Ogogo

71'

J. Hanson← J. Pigott

78'

S. Wagstaff← M. Pinnock

79'

J. Brown← B. Mason

86'

A. Wordsworth← T. Soares

AFC

Coventry

13

15

5

17

3

▼

8

16

22

20

11

21

▼

1

4

3

5

2

14

19

▼

Soares

17

Barcham

9

Appiah

39

▼

Pigott

11

▼

Pinnock

Manager: N. Ardley

71'▲J. Hanson←▼J. Pigott

78'▲S. Wagstaff←▼M. Pinnock

86'▲A. Wordsworth←▼T. Soares

AFC Wimbledon substitutes

18Hanson7Wagstaff40Wordsworth8Hartigan12Garratt24McDonnell26McDonald

Manager: M. Robins

64'▲M. Biamou←▼A. Bakayoko

79'▲J. Brown←▼B. Mason

Coventry substitutes

9Biamou12Brown1Burge2Grimmer6Kelly19Ponticelli26Shipley