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AFC Wimbledon vs Colchester — League Two 2018

AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Colchester
Colchester
8/10/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 1The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

AFC Wimbledon46%
×Draw27%
Colchester27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Wimbledon
1.40
Colchester
1.00

AFC Wimbledon creates 40% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 180 away

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.46
Colchester
1.00

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.00
Colchester
1.34

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par
Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Colchester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw
73%
AFC Wimbledon or Colchester
73%
Draw or Colchester
54%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
22%
Colchester wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
75%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
41%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
17%
Colchester 1+ goals
63%
Colchester 2+ goals
26%
Colchester 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
63%
Colchester (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.00 · 71 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 180 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.46 + Colchester defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.40

Colchester attack 1.00 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more
46%
level
27%
Colchester scores more
27%

AFC Wimbledon at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AFC Wimbledon vs Colchester

AFC Wimbledon beat Colchester 4-2 in League Two on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in London.