AFC Wimbledon 2–1 Colchester: Result & Stats

AFC Wimbledon

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Colchester

J. Davison 66' (pen), 47'

K. Appiah 18'

10/1/2022

League Two · Round 12The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

AFC Wimbledon47%

×Draw27%

Colchester26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC WimbledonExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.98

AFC Wimbledon

1.40

Colchester

0.98

AFC Wimbledon creates 43% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 159 away

1.47

creates per match

0.96

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.47

Colchester

0.96

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.00

Colchester

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw

74%

AFC Wimbledon or Colchester

73%

Draw or Colchester

53%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

22%

Colchester wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

75%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

41%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

17%

Colchester 1+ goals

62%

Colchester 2+ goals

26%

Colchester 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

64%

Colchester (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

Colchester away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.33 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.47 + Colchester defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.40

Colchester attack 0.96 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more

47%

level

27%

Colchester scores more

26%

AFC Wimbledon at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Davison

AFC Wimbledon · F

8.2

Match Events

18'

K. Appiah↳ D. Chesters

31'

Junior Tchamadeu

40'

Luke Hannant

47'

J. Davison↳ H. Pell

58'

N. Chilvers← L. Hannant

59'

O. Ashley← D. Chesters

59'

B. Lubala← M. Longstaff

66'

J. DavisonPenalty

72'

82'

83'

87'

90+6'

90+5'

90+1'

90+1'

90'

P. Kalambayi← I. Ogundere

90+2'

F. Nouble← C. Skuse

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AFCColchester

Overview

45%Possession55%

10Total Shots10

7Corners8

19Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots10

4On Target3

3Off Target2

3Blocked5

8Inside Box7

2Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

256Total Passes319

132Accurate Passes215

52%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls14

5Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0

Match Recap: AFC Wimbledon vs Colchester

AFC Wimbledon beat Colchester 2-1 in League Two on October 1, 2022.

Goals: K. Appiah (18'), J. Davison (47', 66' pen).

Colchester controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in London.

AFC Wimbledon vs Colchester — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: AFC Wimbledon vs Colchester