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AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
Preview
19:45
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
2/9/2027League OneLeague One · Round 30The Cherry Red Records Stadium
Big match
39%
Burton Albion
model favours
36%25%39%

Burton Albion score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

AFC Wimbledon36%
×Draw25%
Burton Albion39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Wimbledon
1.43
Burton Albion
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.22
Burton Albion
1.32

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.66
Burton Albion
1.64

finishing

AFC Wimbledon-0.22scores less
Burton Albion-0.21scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw
61%
AFC Wimbledon or Burton Albion
75%
Draw or Burton Albion
64%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
17%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
76%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
42%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
17%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
77%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
44%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
48%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.66 · 11 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.22 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.43

Burton Albion attack 1.32 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more
36%
level
25%
Burton Albion scores more
39%

Burton Albion at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burton Albion win just 24% of their away games
  • Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.8% end 0-0

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
AFC Wimbledon
Balanced
Burton Albion
Direct / counter-attacking
47%Possession43%
68%Pass accuracy64%
10.6Shots10.2
1.16xGBiggest gap1.31
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
AFC WimbledonBurton Albion

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

0
AFC Wimbledon
3
Draws
6
Burton Albion
Avg goals: 1.7BTTS: 33%
0–10–11–11–10–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Wimbledon
DWLWL
Albion
LLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Wimbledon face Burton Albion (League One)

League One returns with AFC Wimbledon hosting Burton Albion. Match starts February 9, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

AFC Wimbledon host Burton Albion at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.