AFC Wimbledon 0–1 Bromley: Result & Stats

AFC Wimbledon

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bromley

C. Whitely 76'

3/1/2025

League Two · Round 34The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

AFC Wimbledon42%

×Draw27%

Bromley31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC WimbledonExpected goals in this matchBromley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.14

AFC Wimbledon

1.36

Bromley

1.14

AFC Wimbledon creates 19% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 46 away

1.47

creates per match

1.28

1.00

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.47

Bromley

1.28

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.00

Bromley

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Bromley+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Bromley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw

69%

AFC Wimbledon or Bromley

73%

Draw or Bromley

58%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

19%

Bromley wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

74%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

39%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

16%

Bromley 1+ goals

68%

Bromley 2+ goals

32%

Bromley 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

57%

Bromley (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

Bromley away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.47 + Bromley defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bromley attack 1.28 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more

42%

level

27%

Bromley scores more

31%

AFC Wimbledon at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

C. Whitely

Bromley · M

7.9

Match Events

32'

60'

65'

69'

69'

J. Pigott← Omar Bugiel

69'

A. Sasu← J. Neufville

76'

C. Whitely↳ M. Cheek

82'

J. Kelly← M. Stevens

82'

S. Hutchinson← I. Ogundere

83'

K. Grant← C. Jenkinson

86'

Grant Smith

89'

N. Kabamba← M. Cheek

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AFCBromley

Overview

68%Possession32%

17Total Shots10

8Corners3

10Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots10

4On Target2

7Off Target6

6Blocked2

6Inside Box7

11Outside Box3

Passing

68%Possession32%

446Total Passes211

365Accurate Passes121

82%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1