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AFC Wimbledon vs Barrow — League Two 2018

AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Barrow
Barrow
2/10/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 32The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

AFC Wimbledon48%
×Draw27%
Barrow26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Wimbledon
1.45
Barrow
0.99

AFC Wimbledon creates 46% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 138 away

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.46
Barrow
0.99

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.00
Barrow
1.44

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par
Barrow+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Barrow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw
74%
AFC Wimbledon or Barrow
73%
Draw or Barrow
52%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
24%
Barrow wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
77%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
42%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
18%
Barrow 1+ goals
63%
Barrow 2+ goals
26%
Barrow 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
65%
Barrow (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.00 · 71 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.44 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.46 + Barrow defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.45

Barrow attack 0.99 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more
48%
level
27%
Barrow scores more
26%

AFC Wimbledon at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: AFC Wimbledon 2–0 Barrow

AFC Wimbledon beat Barrow 2-0 in League Two on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in London.