AFC Wimbledon 3–4 Accrington ST: Result & Stats

AFC Wimbledon

FT

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Accrington ST

4/30/2022

League One · Round 46The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

AFC Wimbledon42%

×Draw26%

Accrington ST32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC WimbledonExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.20

AFC Wimbledon

1.42

Accrington ST

1.20

AFC Wimbledon creates 18% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 110 away

1.15

creates per match

0.95

1.45

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.15

Accrington ST

0.95

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.45

Accrington ST

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw

68%

AFC Wimbledon or Accrington ST

74%

Draw or Accrington ST

58%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

20%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

76%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

41%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

17%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

70%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

34%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

57%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.70 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.15 + Accrington ST defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.42

Accrington ST attack 0.95 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more

42%

level

26%

Accrington ST scores more

32%

AFC Wimbledon at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff