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AFC Totton vs Worthing — League #51 2026

AFC Totton
AFC Totton
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Worthing
Worthing
T. Jenks 65', 41'
W. Makowski 55'
3/21/2026League #51League #51 · South - 40Snows Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

AFC Totton17%
×Draw18%
Worthing65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Totton
1.18
Worthing
2.44

Worthing creates 107% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 20 away

creates per match

AFC Totton
1.00
Worthing
1.55

allows per match

AFC Totton
3.33
Worthing
1.35

finishing

AFC Totton+0.00on par
Worthing+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Totton ↓

Worthing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

AFC Totton or draw
35%
AFC Totton or Worthing
82%
Draw or Worthing
83%

Winning margin

AFC Totton wins by 2+
6%
Worthing wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

AFC Totton 1+ goals
69%
AFC Totton 2+ goals
33%
AFC Totton 3+ goals
12%
Worthing 1+ goals
91%
Worthing 2+ goals
70%
Worthing 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

AFC Totton (draw refunded)
21%
Worthing (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Totton at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Worthing away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Totton attack 1.00 + Worthing defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Worthing attack 1.55 + AFC Totton defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

AFC Totton scores more
17%
level
18%
Worthing scores more
65%

Worthing at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Worthing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
T. Jenks
55'
W. Makowski
65'
T. Jenks

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #51: AFC Totton 0–3 Worthing

Worthing beat AFC Totton 3-0 in League #51 on March 21, 2026.

Goals: T. Jenks (41', 65'), W. Makowski (55').

The match was played at Snows Stadium in Totton, Hampshire.