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AFC Totton vs Salisbury — League #51 2026

AFC Totton
AFC Totton
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Salisbury
Salisbury
4/3/2026League #51League #51

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

AFC Totton23%
×Draw20%
Salisbury56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Totton
1.36
Salisbury
2.20

Salisbury creates 62% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

creates per match

AFC Totton
1.00
Salisbury
1.07

allows per match

AFC Totton
3.33
Salisbury
1.73

finishing

AFC Totton+0.00on par
Salisbury+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Totton ↓

Salisbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

AFC Totton or draw
44%
AFC Totton or Salisbury
80%
Draw or Salisbury
77%

Winning margin

AFC Totton wins by 2+
10%
Salisbury wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

AFC Totton 1+ goals
74%
AFC Totton 2+ goals
39%
AFC Totton 3+ goals
16%
Salisbury 1+ goals
89%
Salisbury 2+ goals
64%
Salisbury 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

AFC Totton (draw refunded)
29%
Salisbury (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Totton at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Salisbury away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Totton attack 1.00 + Salisbury defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Salisbury attack 1.07 + AFC Totton defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

AFC Totton scores more
23%
level
20%
Salisbury scores more
56%

Salisbury at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Salisbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #51: AFC Totton 2–1 Salisbury

AFC Totton beat Salisbury 2-1 in League #51 on April 3, 2026.