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AFC Totton vs Farnborough — League #51 2026

AFC Totton
AFC Totton
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 3
Farnborough
Farnborough
4/25/2026League #51League #51

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

AFC Totton21%
×Draw19%
Farnborough60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Totton
1.45
Farnborough
2.50

Farnborough creates 72% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 21 away

creates per match

AFC Totton
1.00
Farnborough
1.67

allows per match

AFC Totton
3.33
Farnborough
1.90

finishing

AFC Totton+0.00on par
Farnborough+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Totton ↓

Farnborough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

AFC Totton or draw
40%
AFC Totton or Farnborough
81%
Draw or Farnborough
79%

Winning margin

AFC Totton wins by 2+
9%
Farnborough wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

AFC Totton 1+ goals
77%
AFC Totton 2+ goals
42%
AFC Totton 3+ goals
18%
Farnborough 1+ goals
92%
Farnborough 2+ goals
71%
Farnborough 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

AFC Totton (draw refunded)
26%
Farnborough (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Totton at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Farnborough away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Totton attack 1.00 + Farnborough defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.45

Farnborough attack 1.67 + AFC Totton defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

AFC Totton scores more
21%
level
19%
Farnborough scores more
60%

Farnborough at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Farnborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #51: AFC Totton 1–6 Farnborough

Farnborough beat AFC Totton 6-1 in League #51 on April 25, 2026.