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AFC Toronto W vs Calgary Wild W — Northern Super League 2026

AFC Toronto W
AFC Toronto W
Preview
17:00
Calgary Wild W
Calgary Wild W
10/18/2026Northern Super LeagueNorthern Super League
Big match
56%
AFC Toronto W
model favours
56%23%21%

AFC Toronto W have won 6 of the last 6 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

AFC Toronto W56%
×Draw23%
Calgary Wild W21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Toronto W
1.81
Calgary Wild W
1.00

AFC Toronto W creates 81% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

creates per match

AFC Toronto W
1.61
Calgary Wild W
0.88

allows per match

AFC Toronto W
1.11
Calgary Wild W
2.00

finishing

AFC Toronto W+0.00on par
Calgary Wild W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Toronto W ↓

Calgary Wild W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AFC Toronto W or draw
79%
AFC Toronto W or Calgary Wild W
77%
Draw or Calgary Wild W
44%

Winning margin

AFC Toronto W wins by 2+
32%
Calgary Wild W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

AFC Toronto W 1+ goals
84%
AFC Toronto W 2+ goals
54%
AFC Toronto W 3+ goals
27%
Calgary Wild W 1+ goals
63%
Calgary Wild W 2+ goals
26%
Calgary Wild W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

AFC Toronto W (draw refunded)
73%
Calgary Wild W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Toronto W at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Calgary Wild W away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Toronto W attack 1.61 + Calgary Wild W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Calgary Wild W attack 0.88 + AFC Toronto W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

AFC Toronto W scores more
56%
level
23%
Calgary Wild W scores more
21%

AFC Toronto W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "AFC Toronto W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
LWWD
W
LLLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: AFC Toronto W host Calgary Wild W

October 18, 2026: AFC Toronto W take on Calgary Wild W in Northern Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.