Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AFC Portchester W vs Worthing W — FA Women's Cup 2019

AFC Portchester W
AFC Portchester W
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Worthing W
Worthing W
11/30/2025FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

AFC Portchester W30%
×Draw17%
Worthing W52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Portchester W
2.45
Worthing W
3.20

Worthing W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

AFC Portchester W
2.40
Worthing W
4.00

allows per match

AFC Portchester W
2.40
Worthing W
2.50

finishing

AFC Portchester W+0.00on par
Worthing W+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%Yes
  • Yes87
  • No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Portchester W ↓

Worthing W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
80%20%4.5
65%35%

Double chance

AFC Portchester W or draw
48%
AFC Portchester W or Worthing W
83%
Draw or Worthing W
70%

Winning margin

AFC Portchester W wins by 2+
16%
Worthing W wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

AFC Portchester W 1+ goals
91%
AFC Portchester W 2+ goals
70%
AFC Portchester W 3+ goals
44%
Worthing W 1+ goals
96%
Worthing W 2+ goals
82%
Worthing W 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

AFC Portchester W (draw refunded)
36%
Worthing W (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
84%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Portchester W at home — creates 2.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Worthing W away — creates 4.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Portchester W attack 2.40 + Worthing W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.45

Worthing W attack 4.00 + AFC Portchester W defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 3.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

AFC Portchester W scores more
30%
level
17%
Worthing W scores more
52%

Worthing W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Worthing W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AFC Portchester W vs Worthing W

AFC Portchester W beat Worthing W 4-1 in FA Women's Cup on November 30, 2025.