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AFC Portchester W vs Ipswich Town W — FA Women's Cup 2019

AFC Portchester W
AFC Portchester W
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Ipswich Town W
Ipswich Town W
12/14/2025FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

AFC Portchester W24%
×Draw17%
Ipswich Town W58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Portchester W
1.95
Ipswich Town W
2.99

Ipswich Town W creates 53% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

AFC Portchester W
2.40
Ipswich Town W
3.58

allows per match

AFC Portchester W
2.40
Ipswich Town W
1.50

finishing

AFC Portchester W+0.00on par
Ipswich Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Portchester W ↓

Ipswich Town W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

AFC Portchester W or draw
42%
AFC Portchester W or Ipswich Town W
83%
Draw or Ipswich Town W
76%

Winning margin

AFC Portchester W wins by 2+
12%
Ipswich Town W wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

AFC Portchester W 1+ goals
86%
AFC Portchester W 2+ goals
58%
AFC Portchester W 3+ goals
31%
Ipswich Town W 1+ goals
95%
Ipswich Town W 2+ goals
79%
Ipswich Town W 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

AFC Portchester W (draw refunded)
30%
Ipswich Town W (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Portchester W at home — creates 2.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Ipswich Town W away — creates 3.58, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Portchester W attack 2.40 + Ipswich Town W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.95

Ipswich Town W attack 3.58 + AFC Portchester W defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

AFC Portchester W scores more
24%
level
17%
Ipswich Town W scores more
58%

Ipswich Town W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ipswich Town W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AFC Portchester W vs Ipswich Town W

Ipswich Town W beat AFC Portchester W 5-0 in FA Women's Cup on December 14, 2025.