AFC Portchester W 0–4 AFC Bournemouth W

AFC Portchester W

0 – 4

AFC Bournemouth W

11/24/2024

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundThe OnSite Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

AFC Portchester W20%

×Draw16%

AFC Bournemouth W64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC Portchester WExpected goals in this matchAFC Bournemouth W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

3.15

AFC Portchester W

1.75

AFC Bournemouth W

3.15

AFC Bournemouth W creates 80% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

2.40

creates per match

3.89

2.40

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

AFC Portchester W

2.40

AFC Bournemouth W

3.89

allows per match

AFC Portchester W

2.40

AFC Bournemouth W

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Portchester W+0.00on par

AFC Bournemouth W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Portchester W ↓

AFC Bournemouth W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–37%

1–46%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–34%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

AFC Portchester W or draw

36%

AFC Portchester W or AFC Bournemouth W

84%

Draw or AFC Bournemouth W

80%

Winning margin

AFC Portchester W wins by 2+

AFC Bournemouth W wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

AFC Portchester W 1+ goals

83%

AFC Portchester W 2+ goals

52%

AFC Portchester W 3+ goals

25%

AFC Bournemouth W 1+ goals

96%

AFC Bournemouth W 2+ goals

81%

AFC Bournemouth W 3+ goals

59%

Draw no bet

AFC Portchester W (draw refunded)

23%

AFC Bournemouth W (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

AFC Portchester W at home — creates 2.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

AFC Bournemouth W away — creates 3.89, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

AFC Portchester W attack 2.40 + AFC Bournemouth W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.75

AFC Bournemouth W attack 3.89 + AFC Portchester W defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 3.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

AFC Portchester W scores more

20%

level

16%

AFC Bournemouth W scores more

64%

AFC Bournemouth W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "AFC Bournemouth W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff