AFC Leopards 2–0 Thika United: Result & Stats

AFC Leopards

FT

2 – 0

Thika United

8/18/2018

FKF Premier League · Round 27Thika Municipal Stadium (Thika)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

AFC Leopards50%

×Draw29%

Thika United22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC LeopardsExpected goals in this matchThika United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.77

AFC Leopards

1.32

Thika United

0.77

AFC Leopards creates 71% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 30 away

1.15

creates per match

0.67

0.86

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

AFC Leopards

1.15

Thika United

0.67

allows per match

AFC Leopards

0.86

Thika United

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Leopards+0.00on par

Thika United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Leopards ↓

Thika United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

AFC Leopards or draw

78%

AFC Leopards or Thika United

71%

Draw or Thika United

50%

Winning margin

AFC Leopards wins by 2+

23%

Thika United wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

AFC Leopards 1+ goals

73%

AFC Leopards 2+ goals

38%

AFC Leopards 3+ goals

15%

Thika United 1+ goals

54%

Thika United 2+ goals

18%

Thika United 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

AFC Leopards (draw refunded)

69%

Thika United (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Leopards at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 145 matches

Thika United away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Leopards attack 1.15 + Thika United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Thika United attack 0.67 + AFC Leopards defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

AFC Leopards scores more

50%

level

29%

Thika United scores more

22%

AFC Leopards at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff