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AFC Leopards vs Sony Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

AFC Leopards
AFC Leopards
FT
1 – 0
Sony Sugar
Sony Sugar
7/8/2018FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 22Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

AFC Leopards38%
×Draw31%
Sony Sugar31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Leopards
1.05
Sony Sugar
0.92

AFC Leopards creates 14% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 39 away

creates per match

AFC Leopards
1.15
Sony Sugar
0.97

allows per match

AFC Leopards
0.86
Sony Sugar
0.95

finishing

AFC Leopards+0.00on par
Sony Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Leopards ↓

Sony Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

AFC Leopards or draw
69%
AFC Leopards or Sony Sugar
69%
Draw or Sony Sugar
62%

Winning margin

AFC Leopards wins by 2+
15%
Sony Sugar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AFC Leopards 1+ goals
65%
AFC Leopards 2+ goals
28%
AFC Leopards 3+ goals
9%
Sony Sugar 1+ goals
60%
Sony Sugar 2+ goals
23%
Sony Sugar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AFC Leopards (draw refunded)
55%
Sony Sugar (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Leopards at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 145 matches

Sony Sugar away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.95 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Leopards attack 1.15 + Sony Sugar defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Sony Sugar attack 0.97 + AFC Leopards defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AFC Leopards scores more
38%
level
31%
Sony Sugar scores more
31%

AFC Leopards at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: AFC Leopards 1–0 Sony Sugar

AFC Leopards beat Sony Sugar 1-0 in FKF Premier League on July 8, 2018.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos).