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AFC Leopards vs Posta Rangers FC — FKF Premier League 2018

AFC Leopards
AFC Leopards
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Posta Rangers FC
Posta Rangers FC
11/11/2023FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 11Ulinzi Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

AFC Leopards40%
×Draw30%
Posta Rangers FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Leopards
1.15
Posta Rangers FC
0.95

AFC Leopards creates 21% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 149 away

creates per match

AFC Leopards
1.15
Posta Rangers FC
1.03

allows per match

AFC Leopards
0.86
Posta Rangers FC
1.14

finishing

AFC Leopards+0.00on par
Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Leopards ↓

Posta Rangers FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

AFC Leopards or draw
70%
AFC Leopards or Posta Rangers FC
70%
Draw or Posta Rangers FC
60%

Winning margin

AFC Leopards wins by 2+
17%
Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AFC Leopards 1+ goals
68%
AFC Leopards 2+ goals
32%
AFC Leopards 3+ goals
11%
Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals
61%
Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals
25%
Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AFC Leopards (draw refunded)
57%
Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Leopards at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 145 matches

Posta Rangers FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Leopards attack 1.15 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Posta Rangers FC attack 1.03 + AFC Leopards defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

AFC Leopards scores more
40%
level
30%
Posta Rangers FC scores more
30%

AFC Leopards at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AFC Leopards vs Posta Rangers FC

AFC Leopards and Posta Rangers FC drew 1-1 in FKF Premier League on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Ulinzi Sports Complex in Nairobi.