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AFC Leopards vs Nakumatt — FKF Premier League 2018

AFC Leopards
AFC Leopards
FT
1 – 2
Nakumatt
Nakumatt
2/6/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 12Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

AFC Leopards51%
×Draw26%
Nakumatt23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Leopards
1.50
Nakumatt
0.91

AFC Leopards creates 65% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 38 away

creates per match

AFC Leopards
1.15
Nakumatt
0.95

allows per match

AFC Leopards
0.86
Nakumatt
1.84

finishing

AFC Leopards+0.00on par
Nakumatt+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Leopards ↓

Nakumatt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

AFC Leopards or draw
77%
AFC Leopards or Nakumatt
74%
Draw or Nakumatt
49%

Winning margin

AFC Leopards wins by 2+
26%
Nakumatt wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AFC Leopards 1+ goals
78%
AFC Leopards 2+ goals
44%
AFC Leopards 3+ goals
19%
Nakumatt 1+ goals
60%
Nakumatt 2+ goals
23%
Nakumatt 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

AFC Leopards (draw refunded)
69%
Nakumatt (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Leopards at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 145 matches

Nakumatt away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.84 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Leopards attack 1.15 + Nakumatt defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.50

Nakumatt attack 0.95 + AFC Leopards defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

AFC Leopards scores more
51%
level
26%
Nakumatt scores more
23%

AFC Leopards at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AFC Leopards vs Nakumatt

Nakumatt beat AFC Leopards 2-1 in FKF Premier League on February 6, 2019.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos).