AFC Leopards 1–0 Murang'a SEAL: Result & Stats

AFC Leopards

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Murang'a SEAL

2/11/2024

FKF Premier League · Round 20Nyayo National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

AFC Leopards43%

×Draw30%

Murang'a SEAL26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC LeopardsExpected goals in this matchMurang'a SEAL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.84

AFC Leopards

1.17

Murang'a SEAL

0.84

AFC Leopards creates 39% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 50 away

1.15

creates per match

0.82

0.86

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

AFC Leopards

1.15

Murang'a SEAL

0.82

allows per match

AFC Leopards

0.86

Murang'a SEAL

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Leopards+0.00on par

Murang'a SEAL+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Leopards ↓

Murang'a SEAL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

AFC Leopards or draw

74%

AFC Leopards or Murang'a SEAL

70%

Draw or Murang'a SEAL

57%

Winning margin

AFC Leopards wins by 2+

19%

Murang'a SEAL wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

AFC Leopards 1+ goals

69%

AFC Leopards 2+ goals

33%

AFC Leopards 3+ goals

11%

Murang'a SEAL 1+ goals

57%

Murang'a SEAL 2+ goals

21%

Murang'a SEAL 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

AFC Leopards (draw refunded)

62%

Murang'a SEAL (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Leopards at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 145 matches

Murang'a SEAL away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Leopards attack 1.15 + Murang'a SEAL defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Murang'a SEAL attack 0.82 + AFC Leopards defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AFC Leopards scores more

43%

level

30%

Murang'a SEAL scores more

26%

AFC Leopards at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff