AFC Hornchurch 2–1 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

AFC Hornchurch

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Leyton Orient

G. Alexander 64', 56'

D. Ballard 66'

7/21/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

AFC Hornchurch26%

×Draw22%

Leyton Orient52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC HornchurchExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.90

AFC Hornchurch

1.29

Leyton Orient

1.90

Leyton Orient creates 47% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.20

creates per match

2.00

1.80

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

AFC Hornchurch

1.20

Leyton Orient

2.00

allows per match

AFC Hornchurch

1.80

Leyton Orient

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Hornchurch+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Hornchurch ↓

Leyton Orient →

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

AFC Hornchurch or draw

48%

AFC Hornchurch or Leyton Orient

78%

Draw or Leyton Orient

74%

Winning margin

AFC Hornchurch wins by 2+

11%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

AFC Hornchurch 1+ goals

72%

AFC Hornchurch 2+ goals

37%

AFC Hornchurch 3+ goals

14%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

85%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

56%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

AFC Hornchurch (draw refunded)

34%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

AFC Hornchurch at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

AFC Hornchurch attack 1.20 + Leyton Orient defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Leyton Orient attack 2.00 + AFC Hornchurch defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

AFC Hornchurch scores more

26%

level

22%

Leyton Orient scores more

52%

Leyton Orient at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

G. Alexander

64'

G. Alexander

66'

D. Ballard

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff